Thinking Lindy Effect

What the source does

• FilesystemNone observedNo reads or writes in the source
• NetworkNone observedNo outbound calls in the source
• ShellNone observedNo commands run in the source
• DependenciesPinnedNothing floats
• SecretsNone foundNo keys in source

Five audit layers

Gates applied: no behavioural pass.

Audit 0.4.1 · source sha 9a5557e61022 · 31 Oct 2026Report an issue or request a re-scan

• Publishertjboudreaux GitHub userOwner of the repository this skill is read from
• Source foldertjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills/skills/thinking-lindy-effectThe exact folder we audited
• LicenceMITAs the repository states it
• Commit pinned for this verdict9a5557e61022A new audit runs when the source changes
• Repository statusNot archivedLast push 84 days ago
• Sandboxed runNot runSkills are read, not executed; layer L4 is skipped

Its description: Use when longevity of a non-perishable option matters. Treat survival duration as a remaining-life prior, then check domain drift before favoring the proven.

---
name: thinking-lindy-effect
description: Use when longevity of a non-perishable option matters. Treat survival duration as a remaining-life prior, then check domain drift before favoring the proven.
disable-model-invocation: true
---

# Lindy Effect

For non-perishable ideas, technologies, and practices, expected remaining life scales with current survival age. Prefer proven survivors unless the new option clears a burden of proof or the domain has drifted.

## When to Use

- Choosing languages, frameworks, databases, protocols, patterns, or dependencies where long-term survival matters.
- Skill or architecture bets whose value depends on lasting relevance.
- Ranking options when ages differ materially and the choice outlives a short experiment.

## When NOT to Use

- Perishable targets: specific SaaS vendors, hardware, fashion, or products that can shut down regardless of concept age.
- Active paradigm discontinuity where age in the old regime is weak evidence.
- Throwaway work where longevity is irrelevant — optimize for fit and speed.
- Treating "older" as "optimal for a new requirement"; survival predicts further survival, not best fit.

## Procedure

1. **Confirm non-perishable scope.** Concept/tech/practice continues; vendor/device → score fit/risk only and stop.
2. **Record survival age.** First significant production use and current age (ecosystem-relative if the ecosystem is young).
3. **Form the Lindy prior.** Expected remaining life ≈ current age; mark confidence from age and continued active use.
4. **Run domain-drift checks.** Problem class changed? Paradigm shift invalidating old assumptions? New option uniquely closes a real present gap?
5. **Assign burden of proof.** Default to the older adequate option. Accept newer only for a stated necessary advantage the Lindy option cannot meet at acceptable cost.
6. **Decide with residual risk.** Pick primary; note impact if the prior is wrong and any fallback.

**Stop condition:** Primary chosen with age prior, drift check, and why new did or did not meet burden of proof.

## Output

```text
Options: <name, age, Lindy prior>
Drift: stable | discontinuous — <note>
Burden: on new | waived because <gap>
Decision: <primary>
Rejected: <one line each>
If Lindy wrong: <impact + fallback>
```

## Verification

- Falsify if age was used without non-perishable scope, or a paradigm shift was ignored.
- Falsify if a new option was rejected solely for youth despite a documented necessary gap.
- Over-application guard: skip throwaway prototypes and perishable vendor bets where fit and exit cost dominate.

Excerpt, first 2,596 characters of SKILL.md, verbatim from the audited commit. It is text from someone else’s repository, quoted so you can judge it before your agent reads it.

git clone https://github.com/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills
git -C cc-thinking-skills checkout 9a5557e61022

Works in

1. 2026-10-31
   ✓SAFE B 89 / 100

   first audit · source 9a5557e61022

Questions about Thinking Lindy Effect

• github.com/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills/tree/main/skills/think — the audited source at commit 9a5557e61022 and every finding aboveObserved · 31 Oct 2026

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