Btc Bottom ModelSAFE

Day1Global Finance Skills Share: US Stock, Macro Market, Crypto

The instruction file, verbatim from the audited commit — this is the text the model reads, and the surface the audit's instruction layer examines. Quoted here so you can judge it without cloning anything.

---
name: btc-bottom-model
description: Bitcoin cycle timing model with weighted scoring system. Tracks 13 indicators across 2 categories — Daily Pulse (4 indicators, 32 points) and Weekly Structure (9 indicators, 68 points) — producing a composite 0-100 Market Heat Score. Covers ETF flows, funding rate, long/short ratio, fear & greed index, LTH-MVRV, NUPL, SOPR (LTH + STH), LTH supply %, moving average multiples (365d MA, 200w MA), weekly RSI, and volume trends. Provides both buy AND sell recommendations across the full market cycle. Use this skill when users mention Bitcoin bottom-fishing, BTC cycle position, whether to buy or sell BTC, on-chain metrics, MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, LTH behavior, ETF inflows/outflows, funding rates, fear index, whether Bitcoin is overheated, miner cost, crypto market sentiment, BTC position sizing, or any question like "Should I buy Bitcoin now?" or "Is BTC topping out?" or "What do on-chain indicators say?"
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# Bitcoin Cycle Timing Model (BTC Market Heat Scoring System)

This skill helps you systematically assess where Bitcoin sits in its market cycle — from extreme fear (accumulation opportunity) to extreme greed (distribution/exit signal). Through a weighted evaluation of 13 on-chain, sentiment, and market indicators, it produces a 0-100 **Market Heat Score** and actionable buy/sell recommendations.

## Use Cases

Use this skill when users ask the following types of questions:
- Has Bitcoin bottomed out / Can I buy the dip
- Is Bitcoin overheated / Should I take profits
- Where is BTC in the current cycle
- Do on-chain data support building or reducing a position
- What are long-term holders doing / Are ETFs buying or selling
- Is leverage too high / Is the market too greedy

## Scoring System Overview

The model uses a **weighted composite score from 0 to 100**:

- **0 = Extreme Fear** (historically the best buying opportunities)
- **100 = Extreme Greed** (historically the best selling opportunities)

Indicators are split into two groups:

| Group | Weight | Purpose | Indicators |
|-------|--------|---------|------------|
| **Daily Pulse** | 32 / 100 | Fast-moving sentiment & flow signals | 4 indicators |
| **Weekly Structure** | 68 / 100 | Slow-moving on-chain & cycle signals | 9 indicators |

The heavier weighting on weekly/structural indicators reflects their superior track record in identifying cycle extremes.

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## Daily Pulse Indicators (32 points total)

For each indicator, use web_search to find the latest data, then score according to the normalization rules below. Each indicator's raw value is normalized to a 0-100 sub-score, then multiplied by its weight to get its contribution to the total.

### D1: Bitcoin ETF Daily Net Flow (Weight: 12 points)

**What it is**: The net amount of money flowing into or out of spot Bitcoin ETFs (like BlackRock's IBIT, Fidelity's FBTC) each day. Large inflows = institutional buying pressure; large outflows = institutional selling pressure. This became one of the most important demand indicators after spot BTC ETFs launched in January 2024.

**Search keywords**: `Bitcoin ETF daily net flow` or `BTC spot ETF inflow outflow today`

**Scoring**:
- Net outflow ≥ $500M → Sub-score 0 (Extreme fear / institutional panic selling)
- Net flow ~$0 → Sub-score 50 (Neutral)
- Net inflow ≥ $1B → Sub-score 100 (Extreme greed / FOMO buying)
- Linear interpolation between these anchors

**Interpretation**: Sustained large ETF inflows often indicate late-stage institutional FOMO near tops. Conversely, persistent outflows or the absence of inflows during price drops can signal capitulation bottoms.

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### D2: Funding Rate (Weight: 8 points)

**What it is**: In perpetual futures markets, the funding rate is a periodic payment between long and short traders. Positive = longs pay shorts (bullish bias), negative = shorts pay longs (bearish bias). It directly reflects leverage sentiment in the derivatives market.

**Search keywords**: `Bitcoin funding rate` or `BTC perpetual funding rate`

**Scoring**:
- Funding rate ≤ -0.05% → Sub-score 0 (Extreme bearishness in derivatives)
- Funding rate ~0.01% → Sub-score 50 (Neutral)
- Funding rate ≥ 0.10% → Sub-score 100 (Extreme bullish leverage)
- Linear interpolation between these anchors

**Interpretation**: Persistently high funding rates (>0.05%) mean longs are paying a premium to maintain positions — a crowded trade vulnerable to liquidation cascades. Deeply negative funding rates indicate short dominance, often seen near bottoms.

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### D3: Fear & Greed Index (Weight: 7 points)

**What it is**: A composite sentiment index (0-100) aggregating market volatility, volume, social media sentiment, surveys, Bitcoin dominance, and Google Trends. Published daily by Alternative.me. 0 = Extreme Fear, 100 = Extreme Greed.

**Search keywords**: `crypto fear and greed index` or `Bitcoin fear greed index today`

**Scoring**: Direct passthrough (the index itself is already on a 0-100 scale matching our framework).

**Interpretation**: When fear is extreme (<15), the crowd is capitulating — historically the best buying windows. When greed is extreme (>80), euphoria dominates — historically precedes significant corrections.

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### D4: Long/Short Ratio (Weight: 5 points)

**What it is**: The ratio of long to short positions on major exchanges (Binance, OKX, etc.). A ratio of 1.0 = equal longs and shorts. Above 1.0 = more longs. This shows real-time positioning of active traders.

**Search keywords**: `Bitcoin long short ratio` or `BTC long short ratio Binance`

**Scoring**:
- Ratio ≤ 0.8 → Sub-score 0 (Heavy short positioning)
- Ratio ~1.0 → Sub-score 40 (Slight long bias is normal)
- Ratio ~1.5 → Sub-score 70 (Crowded long)
- Ratio ≥ 2.0 → Sub-score 100 (Extreme long crowding)

**Interpretation**: Extremely high long/short ratios indicate one-sided positioning vulnerable to a squeeze. Very low ratios (shorts dominating) can signal a potential short squeeze and reversal upward.

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## Weekly Stru

SAFEgrade B · trust 89/100 Nothing in the source contradicts what it says it does. Grade A is reserved for packages that have also passed the behavioural sandbox.

What the source does

Filesystem

none-observed

Network

none-observed

Shell

none-observed

Dependencies

pinned

Secrets in source

none-found

Findings (0)

No findings outside the package's declared scope.

Gates applied: no_behavioural_pass.