Scenario War Room

What the source does

• FilesystemNone observedNo reads or writes in the source
• NetworkNone observedNo outbound calls in the source
• ShellNone observedNo commands run in the source
• DependenciesPinnedNothing floats
• SecretsNone foundNo keys in source

Five audit layers

Gates applied: no behavioural pass.

.codex/skills/a11y-audit

.codex/skills/ab-test-setup

.codex/skills/account-executive

.codex/skills/ad-creative

.codex/skills/aeo

Audit 0.4.1 · source sha 6e3fcbdbb5cf · 19 Oct 2026Report an issue or request a re-scan

• Publisherborghei GitHub userOwner of the repository this skill is read from
• Source folderborghei/Claude-Skills/c-level-advisor/scenario-war-roomThe exact folder we audited
• LicenceNOASSERTIONAs the repository states it
• Commit pinned for this verdict6e3fcbdbb5cfA new audit runs when the source changes
• Repository statusNot archivedLast push 12 days ago
• Sandboxed runNot runSkills are read, not executed; layer L4 is skipped

Its description: Cross-functional what-if modeling for compound adversity -- shows how one problem cascades into the next. Use when facing complex risk scenarios, strategic decisions with major downside, or multi-variable threats.

---
name: scenario-war-room
description: >
  Cross-functional what-if modeling for compound adversity -- shows how one
  problem cascades into the next. Use when facing complex risk scenarios,
  strategic decisions with major downside, or multi-variable threats.
license: MIT + Commons Clause
metadata:
  version: 1.0.0
  author: borghei
  category: c-level
  domain: strategic-planning
  tier: POWERFUL
  updated: 2026-03-09
  frameworks: cascade-modeling, scenario-planning, pre-mortem, contingency-design
---
# Scenario War Room

**Tier:** POWERFUL
**Category:** C-Level Advisory
**Tags:** scenario planning, war room, risk modeling, cascade effects, contingency planning, pre-mortem, crisis simulation

## Overview

The Scenario War Room models cascading what-if scenarios across all business functions. Not single-assumption stress tests -- compound adversity that shows how one problem creates the next, and where the cascade can be interrupted. Every scenario produces concrete hedges with costs, owners, and deadlines.

---

## When to Use

- A major risk has probability above 15% and impact above 20% of ARR
- Two or more threats could plausibly co-occur
- A strategic decision has significant downside if wrong
- Board or investors are asking "what's the worst case?"
- Pre-mortem before a major commitment (fundraise, acquisition, market entry)
- Quarterly risk review for leadership team

## When NOT to Use

- Single-variable financial sensitivity analysis (use CFO Advisor stress testing)
- Routine project risk assessment (use project management risk frameworks)
- Technical failure mode analysis (use engineering incident planning)

---

## Clarify First

Before generating, confirm these inputs. If any is unknown or vague, ASK — do not assume:

- [ ] **The (maximum 3) variables that actually keep leadership awake** — the entire model is built around these; the wrong variables produce a useless scenario
- [ ] **Probability, timeline, and quantified impact for each variable** — "revenue drops" is not actionable; "$420K ARR at risk over 60 days" is, and severity levels depend on it
- [ ] **Current baseline** (ARR, runway in months, headcount) — cascade and severity math (e.g., runway going 14→8 months) requires the starting numbers
- [ ] **Company stage** — common scenario patterns and what counts as existential differ by stage

Stop rule: ask only the 2-3 that most change the output. If the user says "just draft it," proceed and list your assumptions at the top of the artifact.

---

## The 6-Step Cascade Model

### Step 1: Define Scenario Variables (Maximum 3)

More than 3 variables creates analysis paralysis, not insight. Choose the 3 that actually keep leadership awake at night.

For each variable, specify:

| Field | Description | Example |
|-------|-----------|---------|
| **What changes** | Specific, quantified | "Top customer (28% of ARR) gives 60-day termination notice" |
| **Probability** | Your best estimate | 15% |
| **Timeline** | When it could hit | Within 90 days |
| **Detection signal** | How you would know it is happening | Sponsor goes dark, usage drops 25% MoM |

**Variable Template:**
```
Variable A: [Specific change]
  Probability: [X]%  |  Timeline: [When]
  Detection: [Early warning signal]
  First-order impact: [Immediate consequence]

Variable B: [Specific change]
  Probability: [X]%  |  Timeline: [When]
  Detection: [Early warning signal]
  First-order impact: [Immediate consequence]

Variable C: [Specific change]
  Probability: [X]%  |  Timeline: [When]
  Detection: [Early warning signal]
  First-order impact: [Immediate consequence]
```

### Step 2: Domain Impact Mapping

For each variable, assess impact across every business function:

| Domain | Key Questions | Typical Impact Areas |
|--------|-------------|---------------------|
| **Finance (CFO)** | Burn impact? Runway change? Bridge options? | Cash, runway, covenant triggers |
| **Revenue (CRO)** | ARR gap? Churn cascade? Pipeline affected? | NRR, expansion, new logo risk |
| **Product (CPO)** | Roadmap derailed? PMF at risk? Customer need shift? | Delivery timeline, feature priority |
| **Engineering (CTO)** | Velocity hit? Key person risk? Technical debt impact? | Capacity, architecture, hiring |
| **People (CHRO)** | Attrition cascade? Hiring freeze? Morale impact? | Retention, culture, bench strength |
| **Operations (COO)** | Capacity affected? Process breaks? OKR impact? | SLAs, efficiency, scale |
| **Market (CMO)** | CAC affected? Competitive exposure? Brand risk? | Pipeline generation, positioning |
| **Legal/Compliance** | Regulatory timeline risk? Contract exposure? | Obligations, deadlines, penalties |

### Step 3: Cascade Mapping (The Core)

This is the most valuable step. Map how Variable A triggers consequences that amplify Variable B.

**Cascade Diagram:**
```
TRIGGER: Customer churn ($560K ARR)
  │
  ├──▶ CFO: Runway drops 14 → 8 months
  │     │
  │     └──▶ CHRO: Hiring freeze imposed
  │           │
  │           └──▶ CTO: 3 open engineering reqs frozen, roadmap slips 2 months
  │                 │
  │                 └──▶ CPO: Q4 feature launch delayed → 2 more customers at risk
  │                       │
  │                       └──▶ CRO: NRR drops → additional churn risk (DEATH SPIRAL ENTRY)
  │
  └──▶ CRO: Revenue concentration increases (next largest = 22%)
        │
        └──▶ Investors: Concentration risk flagged → Series A terms worsen
```

**Name the cascades explicitly.** Common cascade patterns:

| Cascade Pattern | Description | Interruption Point |
|----------------|-------------|-------------------|
| Revenue-to-Runway Death Spiral | Customer churn → lower runway → hiring freeze → slower product → more churn | Emergency revenue diversification |
| Key Person Cascade | Star leaves → team morale drops → followers leave → velocity collapses | Retention bonuses before departure |
| Market Squeeze | Competitor raises → price war → margins compress → can't invest in product | Differentia

Excerpt, first 6,000 characters of SKILL.md, verbatim from the audited commit. It is text from someone else’s repository, quoted so you can judge it before your agent reads it.

git clone https://github.com/borghei/Claude-Skills
git -C Claude-Skills checkout 6e3fcbdbb5cf

Works in

1. 2026-10-19
   !CAUTION B 89 / 100

   first audit · source 6e3fcbdbb5cf

Questions about Scenario War Room

• github.com/borghei/Claude-Skills/tree/main/c-level-advisor/scena — the audited source at commit 6e3fcbdbb5cf and every finding aboveObserved · 19 Oct 2026

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