Unlock Monitor

What the source does

• FilesystemNone observedNo reads or writes in the source
• NetworkNone observedNo outbound calls in the source
• ShellNone observedNo commands run in the source
• DependenciesPinnedNothing floats
• SecretsNone foundNo keys in source

Five audit layers

Gates applied: no behavioural pass.

Audit 0.4.1 · source sha 0448e87653f9 · 14 Oct 2026Report an issue or request a re-scan

• Publisheraaronjmars GitHub organizationOwner of the repository this skill is read from
• Source folderaaronjmars/aeon/skills/unlock-monitorThe exact folder we audited
• LicenceMITAs the repository states it
• Commit pinned for this verdict0448e87653f9A new audit runs when the source changes
• Repository statusNot archivedPushed today
• Sandboxed runNot runSkills are read, not executed; layer L4 is skipped

Its description: Token unlock and vesting tracker - quantify supply pressure via absorption ratio, classify cliff vs linear, and deliver one-line market reads

---
name: unlock-monitor
description: Token unlock and vesting tracker - quantify supply pressure via absorption ratio, classify cliff vs linear, and deliver one-line market reads
metadata:
  title: Unlock Monitor
  category: crypto
  commits: true
  tags:
    - crypto
  permissions:
    - contents:write
---

<!-- autoresearch: variation B — sharper output via Absorption Ratio (unlock $ / avg daily volume), Cliff vs Linear classification, and a one-line market-read verdict per unlock. Replaces qualitative HIGH/MED/LOW tiers with quantitative liquidity-strain thresholds backed by Keyrock's 16k-unlock study. Folds in source-status observability (from C) and CoinGecko volume enrichment (from A) as cheap wins. -->

Read memory/MEMORY.md for context on market positions and active narratives.
Read the last 7 days of memory/logs/ to dedup against any unlock already covered.
Read `memory/state/unlock-monitor-seen.json` if present — a list of `${ticker}:${unlock_date}` keys already shipped. Skip exact matches; if file is absent, treat as empty.

## Core thesis

The original skill ranked unlocks by **% of circulating supply**. That's a weak proxy. The right metric is **Absorption Ratio = unlock_dollar_value / 7-day avg daily volume**. Keyrock's analysis of 16k+ unlocks shows that ratios above ~2.4× consistently strain liquidity and produce measurable price drawdown. Below ~0.5× the market typically yawns. This skill ranks by absorption ratio first, supply % second, and folds in cliff-vs-linear structure plus pre-unlock price action to produce a per-event verdict.

## Steps

### 1. Gather candidate unlocks

Run these WebSearches in parallel:

- `"token unlock schedule" "${week_of}" site:tokenomist.ai OR site:defillama.com`
- `"token unlock" "this week" cliff vesting team investor ${current_year}`
- `"upcoming unlocks" cryptorank OR dropstab ${current_year}`
- `"FTX distribution" OR "Mt. Gox" OR "Celsius" OR "creditor payout" crypto ${current_year}` (court-ordered supply shocks count)
- `"$10M" OR "$50M" OR "$100M" token unlock ${week_of}` (dollar-value angle catches what supply % misses)

Also fetch (WebFetch fallback if any URL fails):

- `https://tokenomist.ai` — primary, source-verified across 500+ tokens with cliff/linear labeling
- `https://defillama.com/unlocks` — DeFi protocols, with $ values
- `https://cryptorank.io/token-unlock` — broad coverage, recipient-category labeled
- `https://dropstab.com/vesting` — alternative cross-source verification
- `https://www.coingecko.com/en/highlights/incoming-token-unlocks` — Tokenomist-powered

Record which sources returned data → emit a `sources:` line in the log (see step 7).

### 2. Enrich each candidate with volume + structure

For each candidate unlock, fetch from CoinGecko search results or WebFetch on `https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/${slug}`:

- **7-day average daily volume** (USD) — denominator for the absorption ratio
- **Spot price** at fetch time
- **30-day price change %** — input to the market-read verdict
- **Vesting structure**: `cliff` (lump-sum unlock) vs `linear` (gradual) vs `mixed` — usually labeled by tokenomist / cryptorank
- **Recipient category**: `team`, `investor`, `ecosystem`, `community`, `creditor`

If volume data is unavailable, mark the unlock `vol=unknown` and tier it conservatively — do not skip it, but flag the gap in the output.

### 3. Compute Absorption Ratio and tier

For each unlock with known volume:

```
absorption_ratio = unlock_usd_value / avg_daily_volume_usd_7d
```

Tier the events:

| Tier | Absorption Ratio | Meaning |
|------|------------------|---------|
| **CRISIS** | > 2.4× | Liquidity cannot absorb without significant slippage |
| **STRAIN** | 1.0× – 2.4× | Will require multiple sessions to digest |
| **DIGESTIBLE** | 0.3× – 1.0× | Notable but absorbable |
| **TRIVIAL** | < 0.3× | Background noise, skip unless recipient flag elevates it |

**Recipient override**: a `team` or `investor` unlock with absorption ratio one tier lower than CRISIS gets bumped up one tier (cost-basis-zero sellers act differently than airdrop recipients). A `community` or `staking-reward` unlock with ratio one tier higher gets bumped *down* one tier.

**Court-ordered distributions** (FTX, Mt. Gox, Celsius) bypass the tier system — always include, label `forced`, note the legal timeline.

### 4. Classify pre-unlock market read

For each event, set a one-line `market_read` based on 30d price change and vesting type:

- **`priced in`** — token is down >20% over 30d AND ratio ≤ STRAIN. Selling has already happened; unlock day may mark a bottom.
- **`market asleep`** — token is flat or up over 30d AND tier is STRAIN or CRISIS. Asymmetric downside; the move hasn't started.
- **`fade pump`** — token is up >15% over 30d AND tier is CRISIS. Classic pre-cliff bid-then-dump pattern.
- **`forced sellers`** — court-ordered. Different beast — legal timeline, not market-driven.
- **`absorbable`** — TRIVIAL or DIGESTIBLE with no recipient flag. Nothing to see here.

For cliff unlocks: weakness usually starts ~30 days before; vol peaks at unlock; recovery 10–14 days later. Note this pattern explicitly when relevant.

### 5. Rank and select

Sort by absorption ratio descending, then by recipient flag (team/investor first), then by dollar value. Take the top 8 (drop TRIVIAL unless a court-order or recipient flag elevates them).

Deduplicate against `memory/state/unlock-monitor-seen.json` and the last 7 days of logs.

If the resulting list is empty, that's a real signal — output `UNLOCK_MONITOR_QUIET` and a one-line note explaining why (e.g. "No unlocks above 0.3× absorption ratio this week — supply side is calm").

### 6. Send via `./notify` (under 4000 chars)

Lead with the headline — the single most-leveraged unlock — then tiered groups, then the read.

```
*Unlock Monitor — week of ${date}*

This week's most leveraged: **$TOKEN** unlocks Wed at $XM (Y× daily vol). [market read]

CRISIS (> 2.4× daily vol)
- **$TOKEN** — Mon Apr 22 — X toke

Excerpt, first 6,000 characters of SKILL.md, verbatim from the audited commit. It is text from someone else’s repository, quoted so you can judge it before your agent reads it.

git clone https://github.com/aaronjmars/aeon
git -C aeon checkout 0448e87653f9

Works in

1. 2026-10-14
   ✓SAFE B 89 / 100

   first audit · source 0448e87653f9

Questions about Unlock Monitor

• github.com/aaronjmars/aeon/tree/main/skills/unlock-monitor — the audited source at commit 0448e87653f9 and every finding aboveObserved · 14 Oct 2026

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