Monitor Polymarket

What the source does

• FilesystemNone observedNo reads or writes in the source
• NetworkNone observedNo outbound calls in the source
• ShellNone observedNo commands run in the source
• DependenciesPinnedNothing floats
• SecretsNone foundNo keys in source

Five audit layers

Gates applied: no behavioural pass.

Audit 0.4.1 · source sha 0448e87653f9 · 14 Oct 2026Report an issue or request a re-scan

• Publisheraaronjmars GitHub organizationOwner of the repository this skill is read from
• Source folderaaronjmars/aeon/skills/monitor-polymarketThe exact folder we audited
• LicenceMITAs the repository states it
• Commit pinned for this verdict0448e87653f9A new audit runs when the source changes
• Repository statusNot archivedPushed today
• Sandboxed runNot runSkills are read, not executed; layer L4 is skipped

Its description: Monitor Polymarket and/or Kalshi prediction markets for 24h price moves, volume changes, fresh comments, and high-conviction alerts

---
name: monitor-polymarket
description: Monitor Polymarket and/or Kalshi prediction markets for 24h price moves, volume changes, fresh comments, and high-conviction alerts
metadata:
  title: Monitor Prediction Markets
  mode: read-only
  category: crypto
  var: ""
  tags:
    - crypto
    - research
---
> **${var}** — Platform selector with an optional single-market override:
> - **empty** (`""`) — run **both** platforms from their watchlists.
> - `polymarket` — run Polymarket's whole watchlist (`skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist-polymarket.md`).
> - `kalshi` — run Kalshi's whole watchlist (`skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist-kalshi.md`).
> - `polymarket:<event-slug>` — one ad-hoc Polymarket event (e.g. `polymarket:us-x-iran-ceasefire-by`).
> - `kalshi:<event-ticker>` — one ad-hoc Kalshi event (e.g. `kalshi:KXGDP-26Q2`).

Read `memory/MEMORY.md` for context.
Read the last 2 days of `memory/logs/` to compare against previous readings and flag *new* movers (not repeats of yesterday's news).

## Why this skill exists

A table of prices isn't useful. An operator reading this notification wants to answer: **"is there a market worth forming a view on right now, and why?"** Every rule below exists to push output toward that question — suppress noise, rank by decision value, and demand one line of reasoning per alert. This skill covers two venues — **Polymarket** (crypto-native, CLOB + comments) and **Kalshi** (regulated, liquidity-weighted signals) — and dispatches to the branch(es) the selector asks for.

## Dispatch

Parse `${var}` into a platform choice and an optional single-market override, then run the matching branch(es).

```bash
PLATFORM="both"   # both | polymarket | kalshi
SINGLE=""         # optional single event slug (Polymarket) or ticker (Kalshi)

case "${var}" in
  "")            PLATFORM="both" ;;
  polymarket)   PLATFORM="polymarket" ;;
  kalshi)       PLATFORM="kalshi" ;;
  polymarket:*) PLATFORM="polymarket"; SINGLE="${var#polymarket:}" ;;
  kalshi:*)     PLATFORM="kalshi";     SINGLE="${var#kalshi:}" ;;
  *)            # unrecognised prefix — don't guess a venue; fall back to both watchlists
                PLATFORM="both"; SINGLE=""
                echo "unrecognised selector '${var}' — running both watchlists" ;;
esac
```

- `PLATFORM=both` → run the **Polymarket branch** and the **Kalshi branch**, each from its own watchlist, then emit a combined notification.
- `PLATFORM=polymarket` → run only the Polymarket branch (whole watchlist, or `SINGLE` if set).
- `PLATFORM=kalshi` → run only the Kalshi branch (whole watchlist, or `SINGLE` if set).

Each branch below is independently executable — skip the one(s) the selector didn't ask for.

---

# Polymarket branch

Data source: Polymarket **gamma-api** (events, comments) + **clob** (price history). All endpoints are **public — no auth**.

Watchlist: `skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist-polymarket.md`. Each line is an event slug; add or remove slugs to change what's monitored.

## P1. Load watchlist

```bash
if [ -n "$SINGLE" ]; then
  SLUGS="$SINGLE"
else
  # One slug per line, skip comments and blanks
  SLUGS=$(grep -v '^#' skills/monitor-polymarket/watchlist-polymarket.md | grep -v '^$')
fi
```

If the watchlist is empty and no single slug was given, there's nothing to do on Polymarket — note it and move on (don't fabricate a report).

## P2. For each event, fetch markets and price history

For each event slug in `$SLUGS`:

**a) Get the event and its markets:**
```bash
curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=$SLUG&limit=1"
```

The response contains the event `id`, `title`, and a `markets` array. Each market has:
- `id`, `question`, `slug`, `closed`
- `outcomePrices` — JSON array, index 0 = YES price (0.0–1.0)
- `volume24hr`, `volumeNum`, `liquidityNum`
- `clobTokenIds` — JSON array, index 0 = YES token, index 1 = NO token

**Skip closed markets** — they've already resolved.

**b) Get 24h price history for each open market:**
```bash
# YES token is index 0 of clobTokenIds
TOKEN_ID=$(echo "$CLOB_TOKEN_IDS" | jq -r '.[0]')   # jq, not python3: python3 is not in the read-only tool allowlist
curl -s "https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history?market=$TOKEN_ID&interval=1d&fidelity=60"
```

Response: `{ "history": [{ "t": unix_timestamp, "p": "price_string" }, ...] }`

**c) Calculate 24h stats for each market:**
- **Open / Close** — first and last price in the history
- **Change** — close minus open, in percentage points (e.g. +4.0pp)
- **High / Low** — intraday range
- **Volume** — `volume24hr` from the market data
- **Direction** — classify as: surging (>+5pp), rising (+2 to +5pp), stable (−2 to +2pp), falling (−5 to −2pp), crashing (<−5pp)

## P3. Fetch comments

For each event, get top comments and latest comments:

```bash
EVENT_ID=... # from step P2a

# Top comments by reactions
curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments?parent_entity_type=Event&parent_entity_id=$EVENT_ID&limit=10&order=reactionCount&ascending=false"

# Latest comments (last 24h chatter)
curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/comments?parent_entity_type=Event&parent_entity_id=$EVENT_ID&limit=10&order=createdAt&ascending=false"
```

**Important:** `parent_entity_type` must be `Event` (capital E).

Each comment has: `body`, `profile.username` (often null → use "anon"), `reactionCount`, `createdAt`.

From the combined results, pick the **3 most interesting comments** per event:
- New comments from the last 24h get priority (they react to recent moves)
- High-reaction comments that are still relevant
- Contrarian takes, insider-sounding analysis, whale callouts, humor

## P4. Build the Polymarket report

For each event, produce a summary block:

```
**[Event Title]** (event_id: N)

| Market | YES | 24h Chg | High/Low | 24h Vol |
|--------|-----|---------|----------|---------|
| [question] | XX.X% | +X.Xpp ▲ | XX–XX% | $X.Xm |
| [question] | XX.X% | -X.Xpp ▼ | XX–XX% | $X.Xm |
...

Biggest mover: "[question]" — [direction] from X% to

Excerpt, first 6,000 characters of SKILL.md, verbatim from the audited commit. It is text from someone else’s repository, quoted so you can judge it before your agent reads it.

git clone https://github.com/aaronjmars/aeon
git -C aeon checkout 0448e87653f9

Works in

1. 2026-10-14
   ✓SAFE B 89 / 100

   first audit · source 0448e87653f9

Questions about Monitor Polymarket

• github.com/aaronjmars/aeon/tree/main/skills/monitor-polymarket — the audited source at commit 0448e87653f9 and every finding aboveObserved · 14 Oct 2026

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